A probabilistic inverse method for volcanic ash dispersion modelling

Abstract

We present a new inverse modelling approach for integrating satellite detections of volcanic ash with dispersion models. We demonstrate the utility of this approach in estimating the ash column height in the February 2014 eruption of Mount Kelut in Java, Indonesia. We show that the inferred height is consistent with estimates obtained by other remote sensing techniques. This method may be used to obtain estimates of model parameters such as ash column height in cases where no such information is available or is subject to significant uncertainty. References

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