Duckwort–Lewis run out?

Abstract

In one-day cricket matches the two competing teams have the same number of overs, typically 50, and the highest scoring team wins, with ties possible but unusual. If the match is interrupted, then the Duckworth–Lewis method is accepted by the International Cricket Council as the algorithm for deciding the result. In 2007, John Turner suggested an alternative method, named the Player Specific Method, that models the performance of batters against different types of bowlers and the remaining time in an innings, and then uses computer simulation to generate an ensemble of possible scores. Then, either the mean value of these scores is used to determine the winning team, or a probability is assigned to one of the teams winning. This method is illustrated for the one-day match between Australia and Sri Lanka at the MCG on 22nd February 2008, and its feasibility as an alternative to the Duckworth–Lewis method is discussed. References

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