Estimating components of covariance between two climate variables using model ensembles


  • Simon Grainger
  • Carsten Segerlund Frederiksen
  • Xiaogu Zheng



The seasonal mean of a climate variable is considered to consist of: (a)~slow-external; (b)~slow-internal; and (c)~intraseasonal components. Using an Analysis of Variance-based method, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean from an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model realisations is separable into these components. Here, we propose a method for analysing the covariability of these components between pairs of climate variables. In particular, the method allows for an estimate of the covariability of the projected time series of the modes of variability of one climate variable with the time series of another. To illustrate this, the relationship between time series of the modes of variability of 500\,hPa geopotential height and sea surface temperature is examined for an ensemble of coupled general circulation model realisations. The method is applicable to other atmospheric climate variables and datasets. References
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