Wind hazard assessment
Keywords:Wind gusts, Extreme distributions, Return periods
AbstractAirport mean wind and gust speed data is used with past and future simulated data to estimate the maximum gust speed for a 500 year return period. It is demonstrated that the instantaneous speeds lead to the same result as data giving maximums over some time period. The airport mean wind speed was related to the gust speed, and the future simulations related to the past simulations. However, the relation between measured airport data and the simulations is poor. A Weibull distributions fitted to the upper part of the gust data is extrapolated to give the 500 year return period. An alternative approach using techniques similar to some actuarial analyses is also demonstrated.
Proceedings of the Mathematics in Industry Study Group