Historical backtesting of local volatility model using AUD/USD vanilla options

Timothy Gregory Ling, Pavel Shevchenko


The local volatility model is a well-known extension of the Black–Scholes constant volatility model, whereby the volatility is dependent on both time and the underlying asset. This model can be calibrated to provide a perfect fit to a wide range of implied volatility surfaces. The model is easy to calibrate and still very popular in foreign exchange option trading. In this paper, we address a question of validation of the local volatility model. Different stochastic models for the underlying asset can be calibrated to provide a good fit to the current market data, which should be recalibrated every trading date. A good fit to the current market data does not imply that the model is appropriate, and historical backtesting should be performed for validation purposes. We study delta hedging errors under the local volatility model using historical data from 2005 to 2011 for the AUD/USD implied volatility. We performed backtests for a range of option maturities and strikes using sticky delta and theoretically correct delta hedging. The results show that delta hedging errors under the standard Black–Scholes model are no worse than those of the local volatility model. Moreover, for the case of in- and at-the-money options, the hedging error for the Black–Scholes model is significantly better.



local volatility model; backtesting; model validation; foreign exchange options; implied volatility

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v57i0.8958

Remember, for most actions you have to record/upload into this online system
and then inform the editor/author via clicking on an email icon or Completion button.
ANZIAM Journal, ISSN 1446-8735, copyright Australian Mathematical Society.