A method for estimating the potential long-range predictability of precipitation over Western Australia

Carsten Segerlund Frederiksen, Simon Grainger, Xiaogu Zheng

Abstract


A methodology for estimating the potential predictability of seasonal mean climate variables where the daily data consist of dichotomous (on/off) events, such as precipitation, is described and applied to Western Australian rainfall for the period 1951--2000. The method relies on determining an estimate for the intermonth correlations for precipitation and utilizes a stochastic, two state, first order, Markov chain model fitted to the daily data.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v50i0.1411



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