Estimating the potential predictability of Western Australian surface temperature using monthly data

Simon Grainger, Carsten S Frederiksen, Xiaogu Zheng


The seasonal mean of a climate variable is considered to be a statistical random variable with two components: a slow component related to slowly varying (time scales of a season or more) forcings from external and internal atmospheric sources, and an intraseasonal component related to forcings from weather variability with time scales less than a season. Here, an extension of a previous Analysis of Variance method is proposed which deals with climate data in all seasons when estimating the intraseasonal variability. By removing this from the total variability, an estimate for the slow component, and hence the long range predictability, of the seasonal mean is made. The method is applied to monthly surface temperature data for Western Australia from 1951--2000.

  • R. J. B. Fawcett, D. A. Jones and G. S. Beard. A verification of publicly issued seasonal forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology: 1998--2003. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 54:1--13, 2005.
  • C. S. Frederiksen and X. Zheng. Coherent Structures of Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation: The Role of Intraseasonal Variability. Frontiers in Turbulence and Coherent Structures, World Scientific Lecture Notes in Complex Systems, Vol. 6, Eds Jim Denier and Jorgen Frederiksen, World Scientific Publications, 87--120, 2007.
  • S. Grainger, C. S. Frederiksen and X. Zheng. Estimating the potential predictability of Australian surface maximum and minimum temperature. Climate Dynamics, Accepted, 2008.
  • D. A. Jones and B. C. Trewin. The spatial structure of monthly temperature anomalies over Australia. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 49:261--276, 2000.
  • E. N. Lorenz. On the existence of extended range predictability. J. Appl. Meteor., 12:543--546, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<0543:OTEOER>2.0.CO;2, 1973.
  • I. G. Watterson. The diurnal cycle of surface air temperature in simulated present and doubled CO2 climates. Climate Dynamics, 13:533--545, doi:10.1007/s003820050181, 1997.
  • X. Zheng and C. S. Frederiksen. Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 1, methodology. Climate Dynamics, 23:177--191, doi::{10.1007/s00382-004-0428-7}, 2004.
  • X. Zheng, H. Nakamura and J. A. Renwick. Potential predictability of seasonal means based on monthly time series of meteorological variables. J. Climate, 13:2591--2604, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2591:PPOSMB>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
  • X. Zheng, M. Sugi and C. S. Frederiksen. Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of climate simulations with the MRI-JMA AGCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Jap., 82:1--18, doi:10.2151/jmsj.82.1, 2004.

Full Text:



Remember, for most actions you have to record/upload into this online system
and then inform the editor/author via clicking on an email icon or Completion button.
ANZIAM Journal, ISSN 1446-8735, copyright Australian Mathematical Society.