Modelling power output from correlated wind farms

Authors

  • Bill Whiten Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre, The university of Queensland
  • Barry McDonald Massey University, INMS, Auckland 0632
  • Ray Bedford RMIT, Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne 3000

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v53i0.5194

Keywords:

Wind prediction, Multiple wind farms

Abstract

Wind data from fifteen potential wind farm sites covering New Zealand were analysed. The data was fitted with a generalised gamma distribution and transformed to a Gaussian distribution. A regression was used to model the temporal correlation and the spatial correlation was modelled with a multivariate Gaussian distribution. This enabled prediction of the distribution of power generated and of the changes in power over ten minute intervals. For predicting up to two hours ahead, prediction of wind speed was moderate, but the steep relation of wind to power meant that power predictions were not good.

Author Biography

Bill Whiten, Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre, The university of Queensland

Retired

Published

2013-11-28

Issue

Section

Proceedings of the Mathematics in Industry Study Group