Dynamic variability and seasonal predictability in an intermediate complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere model


  • Carsten Segerlund Frederiksen Bureau of Meteorology Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research PO Box 1289 Melbourne Victoria 3001
  • Jorgen S. Frederiksen Climate Adaptation Flagship, Centre for Australian Weather and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria~3195, Australia.
  • Ramesh C. Balgovind Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria~3001, Australia.




We formulate a numerically efficient coupled ocean-atmosphere model. It consists of a global atmosphere and a Pacific basin ocean, with two dynamical levels in each component. The model has a realistic climatology and displays El Nino--Southern oscillation variability at the observed frequencies. In hindcasts over the period 1981 to 2000, the model displays good skill out to seven months in forecasting the tropical upper ocean temperatures and zonal current anomalies. The most skilful forecasts occur for those initialised during June to November. Skilful predictions for the atmospheric fields generally only extend to one month, but can be as much as three months during major El Nino--Southern oscillation events. References
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