Iterative refinement and smoothing of cyclone tracks from mean sea level pressure data

David Herschel Smith, Asri Sulaiman


Local nonlinear regression fits are applied to mean sea level pressure data from \(24\) member ensemble forecasts of three recent tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Cyclone track estimates derived from the fits are subjected to verification calculations in the form of error-spread diagrams, demonstrating consistency with a recent global ensemble study, with attention also given to cross and along track error components.



Gauss Newton Iteration

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ANZIAM Journal, ISSN 1446-8735, copyright Australian Mathematical Society.